Danger Zone: Workday (WDAY)
Momentum was the only thing supporting WDAY’s stock, and now that the momentum is gone, look out below.
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
netflix
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
Danger Zone: Comcast (CMCSA)
The Time Warner deal is a smokescreen for the fact that Comcast faces many problems to which it does not have an answer. The market already understands that CMCSA has overpaid, which is why the stock is down 5% since the acquisition was announced. And the price will drop further as the market catches on to the larger competitive issues that Comcast faces.
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
No Progress From Amazon in 2013
Amazon (AMZN: $356/share) filed its annual Form 10-K last week. Our analysts have picked through the financial footnotes and fine print. 2013 results reinforce my bearish thesis from May of 2013 that AMZN’s valuation implies a more unrealistic level of growth and profitability than investors realize.
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
Danger Zone: salesforce.com (CRM)
There are too many competitors out there for CRM to grow revenue and expand margins simultaneously to the extent that the market valuation already implies. Too much downside risk is in this stock.
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
Danger Zone 11/19/13: Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix (NFLX) is in the Danger Zone this week. The DVD subscription and streaming video service has changed the way people watch movies and TV shows. However, its current valuation is out of touch with reasonable expectations for future cash flows and profitability.
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
“Index” Label Myths
The word “index” in an ETF label does not always mean that investors are getting the specific exposure they seek. Diligence on ETF holdings is necessary despite what the providers might have you believe. Below I dispel the following myths concerning index ETFs.
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
Why I’m Bullish And We Are Not In a Bubble
I believe the US economy is undergoing a restructuring where we, as a society, are becoming radically more productive. I think that we are entering a new economic paradigm of productivity in both our corporate and labor markets. In this new paradigm, we achieve enough gains in productivity to offset the inflationary forces of QE.
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
Danger Zone 5/20/2013: Amazon.com (AMZN)
The belief that Internet retail is or will be more profitable than traditional retail is untrue. Amazon is in a competitive, low margin business that cannot justify the profit growth implied in its valuation.
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
Show Discretion When Choosing Consumer Discretionary Sector ETFs
Retail HOLDRS (RTH) is our top pick for consumer discretionary sector ETFs. RTH is one of 51 ETFs that gets an attractive-or-better rating. We rate the investment merit of the
David Trainer, Founder & CEO
Stock Pick of the Week: Buy Apollo Group Inc cl A (APOL)- Very Attractive Rating
HIDDEN GEMS:
1. Our discounted cash flow analysis shows that APOL’s current valuation (stock price of $42.31) implies that the company’s profits will decline by 60% and never grow again.
2. Economic earnings are higher than reported accounting earnings.
3. Excess cash of $1,201mm or about 20% of its market cap
David Trainer, Founder & CEO